16 June 2025
Key Insights, Edge of Uncertainty
Geopolitical Unease
Every Monday, we deliver a concise yet comprehensive briefing to help you navigate the week ahead.
Our weekly market dashboard brings together key insights across Macro, Crypto, and Onchain activity, distilled into a clear, actionable format. Whether you’re managing risk or spotting opportunity, start the week informed and aligned.
Join our Telegram Channel to get it delivered directly to your phone.
Last week began on an optimistic note as markets celebrated soft inflation data (CPI, PPI) and a tentative thaw in US-China relations following the rollback of proposed tariff hikes. However, the narrative quickly shifted as geopolitical tensions erupted with Israel’s strike on Iran. This escalation sent Bitcoin (-0.2%) and the Nasdaq (-0.6%) lower on the week, while the 10-Year Treasury (-2.3%) fell to its lowest level in over a month. As investors fled risk assets for safe havens, Gold climbed 3.7% near all-time highs and the Dollar Index recovered from mid-week three-year lows before ending the week down 0.7%.
The VIX spiked (15%) as investors scrambled for short-dated gamma protection, yet Bitcoin’s volatility paradoxically remains near historic lows despite the asset trading around all-time highs. Bitcoin’s volatility is sitting in the “10th percentile,” lower than 90% of weeks over the past decade. This compressed volatility typically precedes significant price movements and signals a potential regime shift toward sustained gains without the characteristic wild swings.
Our Take: Risk sentiment has reverted to the heightened state we witnessed during the spring volatility period. Investors find themselves caught between two opposing scenarios, anticipating either an intensification of current conflicts or an unexpected shift toward negotiated solutions. With geopolitical uncertainties once again dominating market psychology, risk assets across sectors remain highly sensitive to news developments. The trajectory of global markets in the coming weeks will largely depend on whether current tensions escalate further or give way to mediatory breakthroughs.
ETH Momentum
Following the risk-off rotation, crypto declined 0.8% as altcoins continued navigating “Bitcoin season” dynamics. However, Ethereum showed momentum with staked Ethereum hitting all-time highs of Ξ34.67m while Ethereum ETFs extended their winning streak of net inflows to 14 days, the longest of 2025, before ending on Friday. This attention carried into derivatives markets, where Ethereum open interest reached a record $41.4b. Despite weekend liquidations exceeding $1b that flushed leveraged longs, both Bitcoin and Ethereum open interest remain elevated, signalling persistent underlying demand as funding rates normalised.
Beyond the broader market moves, DeFi protocols captured market attention as regulatory tailwinds emerged. SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ proposed regulatory exemptions for DeFi platforms and his defense of self-custody rights boosted sentiment across the sector. Aave surged (14%) on its operational milestones by recording over $16b in borrows (a new all-time high) and crossing $1b TVL on Base, while Uniswap (12.21%) and Sky (19.44%) also posted gains amid the broader DeFi rally.
Our Take: The rotation of capital further into DeFi-based strategies reflects a broader institutional embrace as blue-chip protocols evolve from applications towards core financial infrastructure. With stablecoins hitting record highs and legacy payment companies migrating to stablecoins and seeking to capitalise on USD yield opportunities, the regulatory clarity under discussion is positioning DeFi as essential infrastructure.
Plasma’s Pull
Stablecoin issuance rose 0.42% to $75.27b, marking four consecutive weeks of growth driven by $495m in net USDC mints. The largest inflows occurred on Hyperliquid (+7.9% USDC), Arbitrum (+3.7%), and Ethereum (+3%) as traders repositioned stablecoins for new trading opportunities. This upward momentum reflects stablecoin infrastructure’s deepening integration across both DeFi protocols and traditional financial products.
Ethereum led ecosystem net inflows with $2b, driven primarily by $2b outflows from Base, making Base the week’s largest outflow network. This rotation was likely triggered by Monday’s Plasma XPL public sale, which generated $1b in stablecoin deposits on mainnet. Protocol-level data confirms this narrative, as Plasma’s deposit vaults are powered by Veda, which saw TVL surge 44% week-over-week to $3.59b. Additionally, Yala posted the week’s largest TVL increase at 214% to $105m after raising its token mint cap, allowing users to earn yield on Bitcoin.
Our Take: Market dynamics are again being driven by opportunistic rotations into specific protocols and yield-generating opportunities. With price action remaining muted, particularly in alts, we project continued capital migration toward short-term narratives and yield-focused strategies.
CEXes Move Onchain
The DEX-to-CEX spot volume ratio reached an all-time high of 26.4% this month, driven partly by increased trading of BNB Chain tokens linked to Binance Alpha, the Infinity CAKE reward program, and the Meme2Million campaign. However, this surge also reflects CEX spot volumes hitting their lowest levels since October 2020, combined with growing trader speculation on long-tail assets across decentralised exchanges like Uniswap, Raydium, Pump.fun, Aerodrome.
This comes in a week that we’re also seeing structural tailwinds forming for onchain DEX solutions. Coinbase has announced plans to integrate Base into its main app, allowing users to trade onchain using DEX assets like they would any other asset on the CEXes app, a move that could significantly boost onchain activity by lowering UX barriers. Meanwhile, Bybit has announced the launch of Byreal, its first onchain DEX on Solana, on the 30th June. This highlights a broader shift in which centralised exchanges are beginning to embed decentralised rails into their own platforms, further blurring the lines between CEX and DEX ecosystems.
Our Take: High CEX listing costs, opaque exchange deals, and concerns about insider trading are pushing the market toward DEXs. We anticipate that as CEXes continue expanding their product offerings onchain, the DEX to CEX volume ratio, particularly for spot, will continue to set ATHs throughout the year.
Join our Telegram Channel to get it delivered directly to your phone.
Follow our Telegram Channel
Get the edge before markets move. Join our Telegram channel to receive our market update straight in your inbox.
